The Great Mental Models by Shane Parrish & Rhiannon Beaubien
Author:Shane Parrish & Rhiannon Beaubien [Parrish, Shane & Beaubien, Rhiannon]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781999449001
Publisher: Latticework Publishing Inc.
Published: 2019-10-09T03:00:00+00:00
The assassination had partial effect on the policy
The assassination had total effect on the policy
To test any one of these, we run the experiment in our heads. We sit back and think about what the world looked like in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914. The Archduke and his wife being chauffeured in their car, Gavrilo Princip cleaning his gun somewhere. Now we imagine Princip gets stomach cramps from some bad food the night before. The Archduke’s car makes it to its destination while Princip is curled up in bed. The Archduke gives a speech, emphasizing peace. One of Princip’s gang tries to assassinate the Archduke, but fails. How does Austria react? Is it demonstrably different from what they actually did?
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